Mahmoud Khalil is a test case. The results will come to Madison.

First, they came for transgender people. They came on multiple fronts and in a flurry of executive orders, but the one I want to focus on is the order that says transgender prisoners must be housed according to their gender assigned at birth. Some prisoners have sued to avoid being moved, but the EO has caused chaos within the carceral system.

If they are successful, that means the government will be actively putting transgender prisoners in danger. They chose that group for an early test case, probably because they know that the combination of “transgender” and “prisoner” is perfect for public apathy. But the impact will not affect them alone. It would mean that the federal government has no obligation to ensure the safety of people who are incarcerated, and can even deliberately put them in danger.

Then they came for immigrants. Specifically, they targeted asylum seekers who presented themselves at a border crossing, as is required by law. (Just because Trump says that something is illegal doesn’t mean that it actually is.) Instead of just turning them away, they detained them, took their passports and cell phones, and shipped them to hotels or camps in Panama. They probably chose this group because they would not have had time to contact any family (if they have any in the U.S.) or a lawyer. They are easy to disappear. And now the administration has a network of hotels and camps they could use to disappear anyone they wish.

Then they came for Mahmoud Khalil, a green card holder, which is the closest thing to being a naturalized citizen without being one. Deporting a green card holder—especially one who has not broken any laws—is legally much more complicated than someone who just presented themselves at a port of entry. But they felt confident that they could do it. And they’re ready to do more.

Days before Khalil was detained, the Trump administration cut $400 million of grants for Columbia University, citing last year’s protests of the genocide in Gaza. In response, the University’s administration issued some very milquetoast statements about how they are “committed to combatting antisemitism” and working to address the government’s “legitimate concerns.”

On Tuesday, the Trump administration told universities across the country, including UW-Madison, that they too could lose funding because of the protests against Israel’s genocide in Gaza last spring. Given the hostile, even violent response by university officials to the encampment, I have no doubt the administration would throw the protest organizers under the bus if they thought it would spare the school. It won’t spare the school, but Mnookin’s administration seems to believe appeasing bad faith right-wingers will somehow pay off in the long run. 

The authoritarian playbook is to start with the smallest, most marginalized groups because they are counting on most people to either cave in, thinking it will stop the pain and they will be spared. Or that they will not care enough to act. But each test case, regardless of whether it's a win or a loss, teaches them what they can get away with and allows them to build the systems and methods to achieve their goals.

If we don’t fight for transgender prisoners, asylum seekers, and Mahmoud Khalil, it will only be a matter of time before they come for you. And by then, it’ll be too late.

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